Cellular Automata Markov Chain Application For Prediction Of Land Cover Changes In The Wae Batu Gantung Watershed, Ambon City, Indonesia
Aplikasi Cellular Automata Markov Chain Untuk Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan DAS Wae Batu Gantung Kota Ambon Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58330/prevenire.v2i2.191Keywords:
Cellular Automata Markov Chain, land cover Change, Wae Batu GantungAbstract
The development of built-up land over the last 15 years in Ambon City has affected changes in land cover in the Wae Batugantung watershed. This is due to increasing population growth, and the increasing need for residential land. Changes in land cover in the Wae Batu Gantung watershed have an impact on land degradation, water pollution, flooding, and erosion, which will increase in the future. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in the Wae Batu Gantung watershed in 2012, 2017, 2022, and predict land cover in 2027, and 2031. The Cellular Automata Markov Chain method was used in this study to predict the spatial dynamics of land cover change. The results of the study show that from 2012, 2017, 2022, and predictions for 2027, and 2031 residential land, and open land in the Wae Batutangan watershed continue to expand, in contrast to non-agricultural land cover, and agricultural land which is decreasing. The results of this study are expected to be input into policy making related to spatial utilization in the Wae Batugantung Watershed in the future.
Downloads
References
Ajeeb, R., Aburas, M. M., Baba, F., Ali, A., & Alazaiza, M. Y. D. (2020). The Prediction of Urban Growth Trends and Patterns using Spatio-temporal CA-MC Model in Seremban Basin. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 540(1), 012028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/540/1/012028
Gbedzi, D. D., Ofosu, E. A., Mortey, E. M., Obiri-Yeboah, A., Nyantakyi, E. K., Siabi, E. K., Abdallah, F., Domfeh, M. K., & Amankwah-Minkah, A. (2022). Impact of mining on land use land cover change and water quality in the Asutifi North District of Ghana, West Africa. Environmental Challenges, 6, 100441. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100441
Heinrich Rakuasa, G. S. (2022). Analisis Spasial Kesesuaian dan Evaluasi Lahan Permukiman di Kota Ambon. Jurnal Sains Informasi Geografi (J SIG), 5(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31314/j%20sig.v5i1.1432
Ildoromi, A., Nori, H., Naderi, M., Amin, S. A., & Zeinivand, H. (2015). Land use change prediction using Markov chain and CA Markov Model (Case Study: Gareen Watershed). Journal of Watershed Management Research, 8(16), 232–240. https://doi.org/10.29252/jwmr.8.16.232
Irawan, I. A., Supriatna, S., Manessa, M. D. M., & Ristya, Y. (2019). Prediction Model of Land Cover Changes using the Cellular Automata – Markov Chain Affected by the BOCIMI Toll Road in Sukabumi Regency. KnE Engineering, 4(3 SE-Articles). https://doi.org/10.18502/keg.v4i3.5860
Jacob, A. (2013). Pengelolaan lahan alternatif untuk konservasi sumberdaya air di DAS Batugantung. Agrologia, 2(1), 25–35.
Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri, K., Shamsoddini, A., Mousavi, M. N., Binti Che Ros, F., & Khedmatzadeh, A. (2022). Predicting spatial and decadal of land use and land cover change using integrated cellular automata Markov chain model based scenarios (2019–2049) Zarriné-Rūd River Basin in Iran. Environmental Challenges, 6, 100399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100399
Kafy, A.- Al, Rahman, M. S., Faisal, A.-A.-, Hasan, M. M., & Islam, M. (2020). Modelling future land use land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperatures in Rajshahi, Bangladesh. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 18, 100314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100314
Kapitza, S., Golding, N., & Wintle, B. A. (2022). A fractional land use change model for ecological applications. Environmental Modelling & Software, 147, 105258. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105258
Kuma, H. G., Feyessa, F. F., & Demissie, T. A. (2022). Land-use/land-cover changes and implications in Southern Ethiopia: evidence from remote sensing and informants. Heliyon, 8(3), e09071. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09071
Latue, P. C., & Rakuasa, H. (2023). Analysis of Land Cover Change Due to Urban Growth in Central Ternate District, Ternate City using Cellular Automata-Markov Chain. Journal of Applied Geospatial Information, 7(1), 722–728. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30871/jagi.v7i1.4653
Munthali, M. G., Mustak, S., Adeola, A., Botai, J., Singh, S. K., & Davis, N. (2020). Modelling land use and land cover dynamics of Dedza district of Malawi using hybrid Cellular Automata and Markov model. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 17, 100276. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2019.100276
Nguyen, T. T. H., & Ngo, T. T. P. (2018). Land use/land cover change prediction in Dak Nong Province based on remote sensing and Markov Chain Model and Cellular Automata. Journal of Vietnamese Environment, 9(3), 132–140. https://doi.org/10.13141/jve.vol9.no3.pp132-140
Ni, X., Parajuli, P. B., Ouyang, Y., Dash, P., & Siegert, C. (2021). Assessing land use change impact on stream discharge and stream water quality in an agricultural watershed. CATENA, 198, 105055. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.105055
Permatasari, R. J., Damayanti, A., Indra, T. L., & Dimyati, M. (2021). Prediction of land cover changes in Penajam Paser Utara Regency using cellular automata and markov model. {IOP} Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 623, 12005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012005
Philia Christi Latue, H. R. (2022). Dinamika Spasial Wilayah Rawan Tsunami di Kecamatan Nusaniwe, Kota Ambon, Provinsi Maluku. Jurnal Geosains Dan Remote Sensing (JGRS), 3(2), 77–87. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23960/jgrs.2022.v3i2.98
Philia Christi Latue, H. R. (2023). Analisis Spasial Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di DAS Wae Batugantong, Kota Ambon. Jurnal Tanah Dan Sumberdaya Lahan, 10(1), 147–155. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jtsl.2023.010.1.17
Rakuasa, H., & Pakniany, Y. (2022). Spatial Dynamics of Land Cover Change in Ternate Tengah District, Ternate City, Indonesia. Forum Geografi, 36(2), 126–135.https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v36i2.19978
Rakuasa, H., Salakory, M., & Mehdil, M. C. (2022). Prediksi perubahan tutupan lahan di DAS Wae Batu Merah, Kota Ambon menggunakan Cellular Automata Markov Chain. Jurnal Pengelolaan Lingkungan Berkelanjutan (Journal of Environmental Sustainability Management), 6(2), 59–75. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36813/jplb.6.2.59-75
Rakuasa, H. (2022a). Analisis Spasial Temporal Suhu Permukaan Daratan/ Land Surface Temperature (Lst) Kota Ambon Berbasis Cloud Computing: Google Earth Engine. Jurnal Ilmiah Informatika Komputer, 27(3), 194–205. https://doi.org/10.35760/ik.2022.v27i3.7101
Rakuasa, H. (2022b). Analisis Spasial - Temporal Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kabupaten Maluku Barat Daya. GEOGRAPHIA : Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Penelitian Geografi, 3(2), 115–122. https://doi.org/10.53682/gjppg.v3i2.5262
Rakuasa, H., Sihasale, D. A., & Latue, P. C. (2022). Model Tutupan Lahan di Daerah Aliran Sungai Kota Ambon Tahun 2031: Studi Kasus DAS Wai Batu Gantung, Wai Batu Gajah, Wai Tomu, Wai Batu Merah Dan Wai Ruhu. Jurnal Tanah Dan Sumberdaya Lahan, 9(2), 473–486. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jtsl.2022.009.2.29
Rakuasa, H., Supriatna, S., Karsidi, A., Rifai, A., Tambunan, M. ., & Poniman K, A. (2022). Spatial Dynamics Model of Earthquake Prone Area in Ambon City. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1039(1), 012057. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1039/1/012057
Salakory, M., Rakuasa, H. (2022). Modeling of Cellular Automata Markov Chain for predicting the carrying capacity of Ambon City. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan (JPSL), 12(2), 372–387. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.12.2.372-387
Shang, C., & Wu, J. (2022). A legendary landscape in peril: Land use and land cover change and environmental impacts in the Wulagai River Basin, Inner Mongolia. Journal of Environmental Management, 301, 113816. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113816
Sugandhi, N., Supriatna, S., Kusratmoko, E., & Rakuasa, H. (2022). Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kecamatan Sirimau, Kota Ambon Menggunakan Celular Automata-Markov Chain. JPG (Jurnal Pendidikan Geografi), 9(2), 104–118. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.20527/jpg.v9i2.13880
Supriatna, Supriatna, J., Koestoer, R. H., & Takarina, N. D. (2016). Spatial Dynamics Model for Sustainability Landscape in Cimandiri Estuary, West Java, Indonesia. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 227, 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.06.038
Velasquez-Montoya, L., Sciaudone, E. J., Harrison, R. B., & Overton, M. (2021). Land cover changes on a barrier island: Yearly changes, storm effects, and recovery periods. Applied Geography, 135, 102557. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102557
Wang, Q., Wang, H., Chang, R., Zeng, H., & Bai, X. (2022). Dynamic simulation patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of land-use/land-cover changes in the Wuhan metropolitan area, China. Ecological Modelling, 464, 109850. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109850
Wang, S. W., Munkhnasan, L., & Lee, W.-K. (2021). Land use and land cover change detection and prediction in Bhutan’s high altitude city of Thimphu, using cellular automata and Markov chain. Environmental Challenges, 2, 100017. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2020.100017
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Reindino Letedara, Heinrich Rakuasa, Philia Christi Latue
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
